Residential Market Forecast - REBGV

Sales in 2023 to remain similar to 2022

Metro Vancouver home sales set or neared historic records in 2021 and 2022 on both ends of the spectrum. Sales activity hit a record high in March of 2021 and closed 2022 near historic lows after accounting for typical seasonal variation.

The key economic variable most responsible for this oscillation between extremes has been the spike in mortgage rates, as a result of the Bank of Canada rapidly raising the policy interest rate to quell inflationary pressures not seen in the country in more than thirty years.

Sales Forecast

Sales across Metro Vancouver are expected to reach approximately 28,500 in 2023. This represents a 2.6 per cent decrease over the 29,261 sales in 2022.

Home price forecasts

The average price across all product types for the REBGV area is forecast to reach approximately $1.2 million in 2023, which represents a 1.4 per cent increase over 2022. Prices for apartments, attached, and detached homes are projected to increase in price by approximately one to two per cent.

Risk of economic stagnation and higher mortgage rates

Related to the risk of an economic recession alone, is the risk of economic stagnation (or recession) paired with a continued increase in interest and mortgage rates.

Among the most difcult scenarios central banks can find themselves in is one economists term “stagflation”. This is a scenario where an economy is barely growing or is in recession, usually resulting in high unemployment, coupled with high inflation. In such a scenario, attempts of a central bank to rectify one situation can lead to exacerbating the other.

For example, a central bank choosing to increase the policy rate to fight inflation during a recession could lead to even greater unemployment. Conversely, lowering the policy rate to stimulate the economy while inflation remains elevated could lead to even higher inflation. It is a vexing problem, and no easy solutions exist. Ultimately, policymakers must make dificult choices between exacerbating inflation by trying to stimulate the economy or pushing up unemployment by trying to reign in inflation.

At the time of publication, this situation is fortunately not currently the case. However, given that inflation remains persistently elevated and other economic indicators (e.g., yield curve inversion, etc.) suggest economic trouble may be on the horizon, this potential scenario represents a reasonably foreseeable risk.

Summary of downside and upside risks

Downside risks

With regard to the foregoing, downside risks to the forecasts are at least twofold:

1. Sales could slow more significantly than forecast if the economy stalls and heads into a recession.

2. Valuations could be lower than forecast if the recession is accompanied by significant job losses, and persistently high (or rising) inflation, leading to even higher costs of borrowing

Upside risks

Upside risks to the forecasts are:

1. Sales activity and valuations could be higher than forecast if a recession is avoided and inflation declines more rapidly than expected, leading to meaningful reductions in the cost of borrowing.

*information taken from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver

B.C. Rolls Out New Home Buyer Rescission Period

The Home Buyer Rescission Period, or 'cooling off period' was introduced Jan 3, 2023 across BC.

The new option gives buyers the right to rescind their offer up to three (3) clear business days after the offer is accepted (beginning at 12:00 am midnight the day after the accepted date, weekends and holidays are excluded). Business days, and holidays excluded.

If a buyer changes their mind, they must pay a 0.25% rescission fee (0.25% of the accepted offer price) to the seller within 14 days if the rescission is exercised.

The policy will apply to the following types of structures:

  • detached homes
  • semi-detached homes
  • townhouses
  • apartments
  • residential strata lots
  • manufactured homes affixed

All real estate licensees must provide general information on the HBRP to all consumers through a form approved by the Superintendent. Licensees must also provide an additional mandatory disclosure at the time of preparing an offer on behalf of, or presenting an offer to a client, containing all of the following notices: 

  • that the HBRP cannot be waived,
  • the rescission period time length,
  • the dollar amount of the rescission fee,
  • the deposit handling, and
  • exemptions


There are some things every homeowner should know how to do...because chances are, you're going to have to learn them eventually and a lot of us learn them the hard way! Take a peek at this list!

How many can you do, right now?

What would you like to learn?

  1. Change your own HVAC filters
  2. Unclog a drain without using chemicals
  3. Shut off your main water line
  4. Clean out the dryer vent
  5. Find the studs in your walls
  6. Protect hardwood floors from furniture
  7. Clear out the gutters
  8. Reset a circuit breaker after a blown fue
  9. Test smoke and carbon monoxide detectors

December 2020 Market Stats
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential home sales in the region totalled 28,903 in 2022, a 34.3 per cent decrease from the 43,999 sales recorded in 2021, and a 6.6 per cent decrease from the30,944 homes sold in 2020.
Have questions about the market and what is in store for 2023? Want to know what your home is worth? Give us a call today, we would love to chat!
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